Yasser Arafat is very ill and may not last the night. His death will without doubt trigger a power struggle within the Palestinian Authority.
Pessimistic scenario: We may well see civil war break out, with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other groups fighting to succeed Arafat's Fatah faction for control of the West Bank.
Optimistic scenario: The ascendancy of more moderate elements willing to cut a real peace agreement with Israel and back it up with action on the ground.
More comments from Roger L. Simon and Power Line
UPDATE: Wretchard at The Belmont Club comments on the failure of not only Arafat but Europe and the UN in creating a viable Palestine:
Twenty years of European and UN Middle Eastern policy may be lying on the deathbed with Arafat. That they had to fly in doctors to treat him in a makeshift clinic underscores how, after 50 years of UN relief and billions in European investment, there are no Palestinian institutions. Not even decent hospitals for its supreme leader. The downside of the Arab Way of War -- the Intifada in this case -- is that the concept of victory through denial is inherently pyrrhic. 'We burned our village in order to keep it from falling into enemy hands' is like lighting a match to examine the gas tank; it works but misses the point.
ANOTHER UPDATE: And of course, Lileks:
All you need to know about Arafat was that he insisted on wearing a pistol when he addressed the UN General Assembly. And all you need to know about the UN, I suppose, is that they let him.
YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Arafat appears to be suffering from gallstones. He is being flown to Paris for surgery.
AND ANOTHER UPDATE: For those with short memories, Bill Roggio of the fourth rail provides a retrospective of Arafat's blood-soaked career. Meanwhile, it looks like the Palestinian leadership is moving forward, assuming he will soon be dead or incapacitated.
FINAL UPDATE: DEBKA has a ticker running that says Paris media reports Arafat died just a few minutes ago. Bush, when informed said "God bless his soul".
I'm sure the eulogies will flow, especially from Europe. But I refuse to play the game. Arafat was a mass murderer, not a hero, and a major impediment to peace. In the 1990's I had watched the Arafat-Rabin handshake on the White House lawn with a lump in my throat, and thought that perhaps it was really possible that an avowed terrorist could be transformed into a statesman. But Oslo and its aftermath disabused me of that notion. Arafat passed up on his chance for greatness, and went to his death as a washed-up terrorist who brought ruin upon his people. That he has finally passed from the scene offers a possibility that there can finally be a real chance for peace between Israelis and Palestinians. With Arafat holding the reins, there was none, just murder and deceit. He has betrayed the Palestinian people, filled their youth with hatred through his propganda campaign, and sent them off to sacrifice themselves and others on the bloody altar of his ego. Good riddance.
D'OH! OK, SO MAYBE IT'S NOT THE FINAL UPDATE: The headlines are now that Arafat is in a "reversible coma". Looks like once he finally goes, he will replace Generalissimo Francisco Franco at the top of the "still dead" column. MORE NOT-REALLY-THE-FINAL-UPDATE: Is Arafat dying/dead of AIDS? OK, THIS-TIME-FOR-SURE-FINAL-UPDATE: Mistah Arafat, he dead. This was a man who had the opportunity to be a true peacemaker, but instead showed his true colors as a murderer, not only of his enemies but of his own people. Again, good riddance.
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